The prospect of a US military strike against Iran, particularly under a potentially returning Donald Trump administration, casts a long shadow over the Middle East. But perhaps nowhere is this shadow more acutely felt than in neighboring Pakistan, which views such a scenario not just with concern, but with significant alarm. The core of Pakistan’s apprehension? A potential domino effect leading to widespread regional instability, regime change in Iran, and critically, a severe exacerbation of its own internal challenges.
Pakistan shares a substantial border with Iran, and any significant upheaval in the Islamic Republic would inevitably spill over. The fear of ‘regime change’ in Iran isn’t merely about political sympathy; it’s about the chaotic vacuum and power struggles that often follow such events. A destabilized Iran could become a breeding ground for various non-state actors, further complicating an already volatile neighborhood. This directly translates to heightened security threats along Pakistan’s western border, demanding increased vigilance and resources.
Beyond border security, Pakistan grapples with deep-seated sectarian divisions, particularly between Sunni and Shia communities. Iran, a predominantly Shia nation, plays a significant role in the regional sectarian dynamic. An attack on Iran, perceived by many as an attack on Shia Islam, could ignite dormant sectarian tensions within Pakistan, leading to increased internal unrest, protests, and potentially, violence. Moreover, a refugee crisis emanating from Iran would place immense pressure on Pakistan’s already strained resources and social fabric.
Perhaps most concerning for Islamabad is the potential for such regional instability to fuel separatist movements within its own borders. Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which shares a long, porous border with Iran, has a history of separatist insurgency. A destabilized Iran could provide new avenues or inspiration for these groups, potentially offering sanctuaries or creating opportunities for increased cross-border militancy. The fear is that the ripple effects of an Iranian conflict could embolden those seeking to challenge the Pakistani state, making an already complex internal security situation even more precarious.
In essence, Pakistan’s alarm stems from a stark reality: its own stability is inextricably linked to the stability of its neighbors. A military confrontation with Iran, especially one aimed at regime change, threatens to unleash a torrent of unintended consequences that could undermine Pakistan’s security, economy, and social cohesion. It’s a calculated fear, rooted in geopolitical realities and the bitter lessons of past regional conflicts, highlighting Pakistan’s desperate need for a peaceful and stable Iran.
Source: Original Article
